Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. (von Sphene Capital GmbH): Buy

Classification of Sphene Capital GmbH to Almonty Industries Inc.

Gentung lifts resource base, production profile, and duration

By securing full ownership of the Gentung Browns Lake tungsten project in Beaverhead County, Montana, Almonty Industries has expanded its activities to the US. The project is located in a historic tungsten district that once supplied the US Strategic Stockpile and has existing infrastructure, including road access, proximity to electricity, water rights, and an existing mill site. Based on this preliminary work, production is expected to commence as early as H2/2026e, with preliminary designs indicating an annual output of roughly 140,000 MTU WO3. Almonty is thus further positioning itself as a strategic Western tungsten supplier for critical industries such as defense, aerospace, and semiconductors, with mines in Europe, Asia, and now North America.

Given the recent strong and, in our view, sustainable increase in tungsten prices and the new tungsten project in the US, we have revised our two-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)-based target price for Almonty Industries upward-from CAD 8.40 to CAD 13.50 per share. This revised valuation comprehensively incorporates the net present value of both current and future producing assets, including the Sangdong mine (tungsten and molybdenum), Panasqueira, Gentung, and Los Santos, as well as a discounted assessment of the development-stage Valtreixal project. Based on this updated valuation, which implies an upside potential of 70.9% from the previous week's closing price of CAD 7.90, we reiterate our Buy recommendation for Almonty Industries' shares.