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Canadian Natural Resources Limited Announces 2017 Fourth Quarter and Year End Results

01.03.2018  |  GlobeNewswire

CALGARY, Alberta, March 01, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Commenting on the Company's results, Steve Laut, Executive Vice Chairman of Canadian Natural stated, "In 2017, Canadian Natural continued to execute on its defined strategy and completed its transition to a long life low decline asset base with the completion and ramp-up of the Horizon Phase 3 expansion. The Company's focus on balanced capital allocation was evident in 2017 as economic resource development, increased balance sheet strength, execution on transformational acquisitions and free cash flow generation combined with our ability to execute with excellence, drove a strong year for the Company."

Canadian Natural's President, Tim McKay, added, "Strong production of Synthetic Crude Oil ("SCO") is targeted from our Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading operations with the midpoint of guidance at 450,000 bbl/d of SCO in the first quarter of 2018. With the completion of Phase 3 at Horizon, production has been strong averaging over 247,000 bbl/d of SCO since December 1, 2017 and operations at our Athabasca Oil Sands Project ("AOSP") continue to perform as expected with integration continuing during the Company's nine months of mine operations. The Company's Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading segment, conventional light oil in Canada and our international assets now make up over 50% of our corporate liquids production mix, a significant increase from approximately 32% in 2016. These products provide significant value to the Company as they are priced in close relation to the high value West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") crude oil commodity price.

Our focus on effective and efficient operations resulted in strong operating costs in 2017. Operating costs were within or on the lower end of corporate guidance ranges. Specifically, Horizon operating costs averaged $21.46/bbl of SCO in 2017, after adjusting for planned downtime, excellent results, with the Company looking to capture additional saving opportunities in 2018.

In 2017, Canadian Natural continued its strong track record of delivering excellent finding and development and acquisition costs and reserve replacement ratios, reflecting the strength of our assets and our ability to execute effectively and efficiently. Our reserve additions in the year were strong with gross proved crude oil, SCO, bitumen and NGL reserves increasing 59% to 7.74 billion barrels and proved natural gas reserves increasing 2% to 6.77 trillion cubic feet. Total proved plus probable BOE reserve life index of the Company is now 33.0 years, with low finding, development and acquisition costs of $12.29/BOE for proved reserves, including the change in future development capital. Additionally, our execution delivered strong reserve replacement ratios of 887% on proved developed producing reserves and 927% on total proved reserves, driven by our low sustaining capital requirement, resulting in significant free cash flow that provides sustainability through any commodity price cycle."

Canadian Natural's Chief Financial Officer, Corey Bieber, continued, "The financial strength of the Company was displayed in 2017 as we were able to opportunistically acquire accretive assets and bring the Horizon project to completion, making the Company much more robust and sustainable. As a result, annual funds flow and net earnings were significant at approximately $7.3 billion and $2.4 billion respectively, all achieved with an annual average WTI crude oil price under US$51.00/bbl. The resulting free cash flow allowed the Company to increase liquidity to $4.25 billion and reduce debt to annual adjusted EBITDA to 2.7x at year end.

In Q4/17 funds flow reached approximately $2.3 billion, resulting in a Q4/17 ending debt reduction of approximately $460 million, when compared to Q3/17 levels, supporting our near term focus to strengthen our balance sheet. Additionally, as of the April 1, 2018 dividend payment, the Company's Board of Directors has increased our quarterly dividend by 22% to $0.335 per share, reflecting the strength and robustness of our assets and our ability to generate free cash flow. The increase marks the 18th consecutive year of dividend increases, and confirms our commitment to sustainable and increasing returns to shareholders.”

Three Months Ended Year Ended
($ millions, except per common share amounts) Dec 31
2017
Sept 30
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Net earnings (loss) $ 396 $ 684 $ 566 $ 2,397 $ (204 )
Per common share – basic $ 0.32 $ 0.56 $ 0.51 $ 2.04 $ (0.19 )
– diluted $ 0.32 $ 0.56 $ 0.51 $ 2.03 $ (0.19 )
Adjusted net earnings (loss) from operations (1) $ 565 $ 229 $ 439 $ 1,403 $ (669 )
Per common share – basic $ 0.46 $ 0.19 $ 0.40 $ 1.19 $ (0.61 )
– diluted $ 0.46 $ 0.19 $ 0.40 $ 1.19 $ (0.61 )
Funds flow from operations (2) $ 2,307 $ 1,675 $ 1,677 $ 7,347 $ 4,293
Per common share – basic $ 1.89 $ 1.38 $ 1.52 $ 6.25 $ 3.90
– diluted $ 1.88 $ 1.37 $ 1.50 $ 6.21 $ 3.89
Capital expenditures, excluding AOSP acquisition costs (3) $ 1,143 $ 2,094 $ 411 $ 4,972 $ 3,794
Total net capital expenditures (3) $ 1,143 $ 2,094 $ 411 $ 17,129 $ 3,794
Daily production, before royalties
Natural gas (MMcf/d) 1,656 1,664 1,646 1,662 1,691
Crude oil and NGLs (bbl/d) 744,100 759,189 585,185 685,236 523,873
Equivalent production (BOE/d) (4) 1,020,094 1,036,499 859,577 962,264 805,782
(1) Adjusted net earnings (loss) from operations is a non-GAAP measure that the Company utilizes to evaluate its performance. The derivation of this measure is discussed in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”).
(2) Funds flow from operations (formally cash flow from operations) is a non-GAAP measure that the Company considers key as it demonstrates the Company’s ability to fund capital reinvestment and debt repayment. The derivation of this measure is discussed in the MD&A.
(3) For additional information and details, refer to the net capital expenditures table in the Company's MD&A.
(4) A barrel of oil equivalent (“BOE”) is derived by converting six thousand cubic feet (“Mcf”) of natural gas to one barrel (“bbl”) of crude oil (6 Mcf:1 bbl). This conversion may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation, since the 6 Mcf:1 bbl ratio is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In comparing the value ratio using current crude oil prices relative to natural gas prices, the 6 Mcf:1 bbl conversion ratio may be misleading as an indication of value.

Annual Highlights

2017 Reserves Update

Fourth Quarter Highlights

OPERATIONS REVIEW AND CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Canadian Natural has a balanced and diverse portfolio of assets, primarily Canadian-based, with international exposure in the UK section of the North Sea and Offshore Africa. Canadian Natural’s production is well balanced between light and medium crude oil, primary heavy crude oil, Pelican Lake heavy crude oil, bitumen and SCO (herein collectively referred to as “crude oil”), natural gas and NGLs. This balance provides optionality for capital investments, facilitating improved value for the Company’s shareholders.

Underpinning this asset base is long life low decline production from Horizon mining and upgrading and the AOSP mining and upgrading, thermal in situ oil sands and Pelican Lake heavy crude oil assets. The combination of low decline, low reserve replacement costs, and effective and efficient operations means these assets provide substantial and sustainable cash flow throughout the commodity price cycle.

Augmenting this, Canadian Natural maintains a substantial inventory of low capital exposure projects within its conventional asset base. These projects can be executed quickly and with the right economic conditions, can provide excellent returns and maximize value for shareholders. Supporting these projects is the Company’s undeveloped land base which enables large, repeatable drilling programs; which can be optimized over time. Additionally, by owning and operating most of the related infrastructure, Canadian Natural is able to control a major component of its operating cost and minimize production commitments. Low capital exposure projects can be quickly stopped or started depending upon success, market conditions, or corporate needs.

Canadian Natural’s balanced portfolio, built with both long life low decline assets and low capital exposure assets, enables effective capital allocation, production growth and value creation.

Drilling Activity

Year Ended Dec 31
2017 2016
(number of wells) Gross
Net
Gross
Net
Crude oil 529 495 188 174
Natural gas 27 21 11 9
Dry 7 7 7 7
Subtotal 563 523 206 190
Stratigraphic test / service wells 289 289 268 268
Total 852 812 474 458
Success rate (excluding stratigraphic test / service wells) 99 % 96 %

North America Exploration and Production

Crude oil and NGLs – excluding Thermal In Situ Oil Sands

Three Months Ended Year Ended
Dec 31
2017
Sept 30
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Crude oil and NGLs production (bbl/d) 259,416 238,844 232,019 239,309 239,912
Net wells targeting crude oil 123 145 75 472 170
Net successful wells drilled 120 144 72 466 163
Success rate 98 % 99 % 96 % 99 % 96 %
Thermal In Situ Oil Sands
Three Months Ended Year Ended
Dec 31
2017
Sept 30
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Bitumen production (bbl/d) 124,121 122,372 129,329 120,140 111,046
Net wells targeting bitumen 5 10 8 27 9
Net successful wells drilled 5 10 8 27 9
Success rate 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
Natural Gas
Three Months Ended Year Ended
Dec 31
2017
Sept 30
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Natural gas production (MMcf/d) 1,596 1,593 1,578 1,601 1,622
Net wells targeting natural gas 2 3 4 22 9
Net successful wells drilled 2 3 4 21 9
Success rate 100 % 100 % 100 % 95 % 100 %

International Exploration and Production

Three Months Ended Year Ended
Dec 31
2017
Sept 30
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Crude oil production (bbl/d)
North Sea 19,548 24,832 24,085 23,426 23,554
Offshore Africa 19,519 18,776 21,689 20,335 26,096
Natural gas production (MMcf/d)
North Sea 37 46 44 39 38
Offshore Africa 23 25 24 22 31
Net wells targeting crude oil 0.9 1.8 2.1
Net successful wells drilled 0.9 1.8 2.1
Success rate 100 % 100 % 100 %

North America Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading – Horizon

Three Months Ended Year Ended
Dec 31
2017
Sept 30
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Synthetic crude oil production (bbl/d) (1) 141,275 156,465 178,063 170,089 123,265
(1) Q4/17 SCO production before royalties excludes 1,730 bbl/d of SCO consumed internally as diesel (Q3/17 – 0 bbl/d; Q4/16 – 1,619 bbl/d; year ended December 31, 2017 – 651 bbl/d; year ended December 31, 2016 – 1,966 bbl/d).

North America Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading – AOSP

Three Months Ended Year Ended
Dec 31
2017
Sept 30
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Synthetic crude oil production (bbl/d) (1) 180,221 197,900 111,937
(1) Consists of heavy and light synthetic crude oil products.

MARKETING

Three Months Ended Year Ended
Dec 31
2017
Sept 30
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Crude oil and NGLs pricing
WTI benchmark price (US$/bbl) (1) $ 55.39 $ 48.19 $ 49.33 $ 50.93 $ 43.37
WCS blend differential from WTI (%) (2) 22 % 21 % 30 % 23 % 32 %
SCO price (US$/bbl) $ 58.64 $ 48.83 $ 48.91 $ 52.20 $ 43.94
Condensate benchmark pricing (US$/bbl) $ 57.96 $ 47.96 $ 48.37 $ 51.65 $ 42.51
Average realized pricing before risk management (C$/bbl) (3) $ 53.42 $ 46.33 $ 45.00 $ 48.57 $ 36.93
Natural gas pricing
AECO benchmark price (C$/GJ) $ 1.85 $ 1.94 $ 2.67 $ 2.30 $ 1.98
Average realized pricing before risk
management (C$/Mcf)
$ 2.55 $ 2.29 $ 3.14 $ 2.76 $ 2.32
(1) West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”).
(2) Western Canadian Select (“WCS”).
(3) Average crude oil and NGL pricing excludes SCO. Pricing is net of blending costs and excluding risk management activities.

FINANCIAL REVIEW

The Company continues to implement proven strategies and its disciplined approach to capital allocation. As a result, the financial position of Canadian Natural remains strong. Canadian Natural’s funds flow generation, credit facilities, US commercial paper program, diverse asset base and related flexible capital expenditure programs all support a flexible financial position and provide the appropriate financial resources for the near-, mid- and long-term.

OUTLOOK

The Company forecasts annual 2018 production levels to average between 815,000 and 885,000 bbl/d of crude oil and NGLs and between 1,650 and 1,710 MMcf/d of natural gas, before royalties. Q1/18 production guidance before royalties is forecast to average between 821,000 and 869,000 bbl/d of crude oil and NGLs and between 1,600 and 1,650 MMcf/d of natural gas. Detailed guidance on production levels, capital allocation and operating costs can be found on the Company’s website at www.cnrl.com.

Canadian Natural's annual 2018 capital expenditures are targeted to be approximately $4.3 billion.

2017 YEAR-END RESERVES

Determination of Reserves

For the year ended December 31, 2017, the Company retained Independent Qualified Reserves Evaluators (IQREs), Sproule Associates Limited, Sproule International Limited and GLJ Petroleum Consultants Limited, to evaluate and review all of the Company’s proved and proved plus probable reserves. The IQREs conducted the evaluation and review in accordance with the standards contained in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook. The reserves disclosure is presented in accordance with NI 51-101 requirements using forecast prices and escalated costs.

The Reserves Committee of the Company’s Board of Directors has met with and carried out independent due diligence procedures with the IQREs as to the Company’s reserves. All reserves values are Company Gross unless stated otherwise.

Corporate Total

North America Exploration and Production

North America Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading

International Exploration and Production

2017 FD&A Costs excluding change in FDC

Proved
($/BOE)
Proved Plus
Probable
($/BOE)
North America E&P $ 6.81 $ 5.57
Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading $ 4.78 $ 5.24
Total Canadian Natural $ 5.15 $ 5.52

2017 FD&A Costs including change in FDC

Proved
($/BOE)
Proved Plus
Probable
($/BOE)
North America E&P $ 11.31 $ 9.96
Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading $ 12.58 $ 12.78
Total Canadian Natural $ 12.29 $ 12.17

Corporate Total

2017 Reserve Replacement

Reserves Category % of 2017 Production Replaced
Proved developed producing 887%
Proved 927%
Proved plus probable 866%

Company Gross Reserves

Reserves Category 2016
(MMBOE)
2017
(MMBOE)
Increase
Proved developed producing 4,145 6,908 67%
Proved 5,969 8,871 49%
Proved plus probable 9,179 11,866 29%

2017 Recycle Ratios

Reserves Category Excluding change in FDC
Proved 4.5 x
Proved plus probable 4.2 x


Reserves Category Including change in FDC
Proved 1.9 x
Proved plus probable 1.9 x

Net Present Value of Future Net Revenues, before income tax, discounted at 10%

Reserves Category 2016
($ billion)
2017
($ billion)
Increase
Proved developed producing 46.7 68.1 46%
Proved 69.3 89.8 30%
Proved plus probable 92.3 114.5 24%


Summary of Company Gross Reserves
As of December 31, 2017
Forecast Prices and Costs
Light and
Medium
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Primary
Heavy
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Pelican Lake
Heavy
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Bitumen
(Thermal Oil)
(MMbbl)
Synthetic
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Natural Gas
(Bcf)
Natural Gas
Liquids
(MMbbl)
Barrels of Oil
Equivalent
(MMBOE)
North America
Proved
Developed Producing 114 108 266 322 5,264 4,029 102 6,848
Developed Non-Producing 11 15 34 347 8 126
Undeveloped 46 75 61 994 2,354 119 1,687
Total Proved 171 198 327 1,350 5,264 6,730 229 8,661
Probable 68 74 142 1,230 799 2,790 106 2,884
Total Proved plus Probable 239 272 469 2,580 6,063 9,520 335 11,545
North Sea
Proved
Developed Producing 25 17 28
Developed Non-Producing 4 4
Undeveloped 91 4 92
Total Proved 120 21 124
Probable 60 11 61
Total Proved plus Probable 180 32 185
Offshore Africa
Proved
Developed Producing 30 12 32
Developed Non-Producing 2 2
Undeveloped 51 8 52
Total Proved 83 20 86
Probable 42 47 50
Total Proved plus Probable 125 67 136
Total Company
Proved
Developed Producing 169 108 266 322 5,264 4,058 102 6,908
Developed Non-Producing 17 15 34 347 8 132
Undeveloped 188 75 61 994 2,366 119 1,831
Total Proved 374 198 327 1,350 5,264 6,771 229 8,871
Probable 170 74 142 1,230 799 2,848 106 2,995
Total Proved plus Probable 544 272 469 2,580 6,063 9,619 335 11,866


Summary of Company Net Reserves
As of December 31, 2017
Forecast Prices and Costs
Light and
Medium
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Primary
Heavy
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Pelican Lake
Heavy
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Bitumen
(Thermal Oil)
(MMbbl)
Synthetic
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Natural Gas
(Bcf)
Natural Gas
Liquids
(MMbbl)
Barrels of Oil
Equivalent
(MMBOE)
North America
Proved
Developed Producing 103 91 207 262 4,552 3,654 80 5,904
Developed Non-Producing 10 13 28 312 6 109
Undeveloped 39 65 50 825 (9 ) 2,066 101 1,415
Total Proved 152 169 257 1,115 4,543 6,032 187 7,428
Probable 58 61 101 971 653 2,422 86 2,334
Total Proved plus Probable 210 230 358 2,086 5,196 8,454 273 9,762
North Sea
Proved
Developed Producing 25 17 28
Developed Non-Producing 4 4
Undeveloped 91 4 92
Total Proved 120 21 124
Probable 60 11 61
Total Proved plus Probable 180 32 185
Offshore Africa
Proved
Developed Producing 27 9 29
Developed Non-Producing 2 2
Undeveloped 41 6 42
Total Proved 70 15 73
Probable 32 32 37
Total Proved plus Probable 102 47 110
Total Company
Proved
Developed Producing 155 91 207 262 4,552 3,680 80 5,961
Developed Non-Producing 16 13 28 312 6 115
Undeveloped 171 65 50 825 (9 ) 2,076 101 1,549
Total Proved 342 169 257 1,115 4,543 6,068 187 7,625
Probable 150 61 101 971 653 2,465 86 2,432
Total Proved plus Probable 492 230 358 2,086 5,196 8,533 273 10,057


Reconciliation of Company Gross Reserves
As of December 31, 2017
Forecast Prices and Costs
PROVED
North America Light and
Medium
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Primary
Heavy
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Pelican Lake
Heavy
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Bitumen
(Thermal Oil)
(MMbbl)
Synthetic
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Natural Gas
(Bcf)
Natural Gas
Liquids
(MMbbl)
Barrels of Oil
Equivalent
(MMBOE)
December 31, 2016 168 187 264 1,269 2,559 6,545 198 5,736
Discoveries
Extensions 4 14 20 276 15 99
Infill Drilling 4 7 191 17 60
Improved Recovery 1 1 1 2
Acquisitions 6 20 76 23 2,321 116 1 2,467
Dispositions
Economic Factors (25 ) (4 )
Technical Revisions 7 4 5 82 487 211 13 633
Production (18 ) (35 ) (19 ) (44 ) (103 ) (585 ) (15 ) (332 )
December 31, 2017 171 198 327 1,350 5,264 6,730 229 8,661
North Sea
December 31, 2016 134 41 141
Discoveries
Extensions
Infill Drilling
Improved Recovery
Acquisitions
Dispositions
Economic Factors 4 (5 ) 3
Technical Revisions (9 ) (1 ) (9 )
Production (9 ) (14 ) (11 )
December 31, 2017 120 21 124
Offshore Africa
December 31, 2016 87 31 92
Discoveries
Extensions
Infill Drilling
Improved Recovery
Acquisitions
Dispositions
Economic Factors
Technical Revisions 3 (3 ) 2
Production (7 ) (8 ) (8 )
December 31, 2017 83 20 86
Total Company
December 31, 2016 389 187 264 1,269 2,559 6,617 198 5,969
Discoveries
Extensions 4 14 20 276 15 99
Infill Drilling 4 7 191 17 60
Improved Recovery 1 1 1 2
Acquisitions 6 20 76 23 2,321 116 1 2,467
Dispositions
Economic Factors 4 (30 ) (1 )
Technical Revisions 1 4 5 82 487 207 13 626
Production (34 ) (35 ) (19 ) (44 ) (103 ) (607 ) (15 ) (351 )
December 31, 2017 374 198 327 1,350 5,264 6,771 229 8,871


Reconciliation of Company Gross Reserves
As of December 31, 2017
Forecast Prices and Costs
PROBABLE
North America Light and
Medium
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Primary
Heavy
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Pelican Lake
Heavy
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Bitumen
(Thermal Oil)
(MMbbl)
Synthetic
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Natural
Gas
(Bcf)
Natural Gas
Liquids
(MMbbl)
Barrels of Oil
Equivalent
(MMBOE)
December 31, 2016 65 72 120 1,248 1,045 2,366 86 3,030
Discoveries
Extensions 4 8 19 278 10 88
Infill Drilling 2 3 104 9 31
Improved Recovery 1 1
Acquisitions 2 6 23 27 175 29 237
Dispositions (1 )
Economic Factors 1 (4 ) 1
Technical Revisions (6 ) (15 ) (2 ) (64 ) (421 ) 18 1 (504 )
Production
December 31, 2017 68 74 142 1,230 799 2,790 106 2,884
North Sea
December 31, 2016 119 44 126
Discoveries
Extensions
Infill Drilling 1 1
Improved Recovery
Acquisitions
Dispositions
Economic Factors (4 ) 5 (3 )
Technical Revisions (56 ) (38 ) (63 )
Production
December 31, 2017 60 11 61
Offshore Africa
December 31, 2016 46 49 54
Discoveries
Extensions
Infill Drilling
Improved Recovery
Acquisitions
Dispositions
Economic Factors
Technical Revisions (4 ) (2 ) (4 )
Production
December 31, 2017 42 47 50
Total Company
December 31, 2016 230 72 120 1,248 1,045 2,459 86 3,210
Discoveries
Extensions 4 8 19 278 10 88
Infill Drilling 3 3 104 9 32
Improved Recovery 1 1
Acquisitions 2 6 23 27 175 29 237
Dispositions (1 )
Economic Factors (3 ) 1 (2 )
Technical Revisions (66 ) (15 ) (2 ) (64 ) (421 ) (22 ) 1 (571 )
Production
December 31, 2017 170 74 142 1,230 799 2,848 106 2,995


Reconciliation of Company Gross Reserves
As of December 31, 2017
Forecast Prices and Costs
PROVED PLUS PROBABLE
North America Light and
Medium
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Primary
Heavy
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Pelican Lake
Heavy
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Bitumen
(Thermal Oil)
(MMbbl)
Synthetic
Crude Oil
(MMbbl)
Natural
Gas
(Bcf)
Natural Gas
Liquids
(MMbbl)
Barrels of Oil
Equivalent
(MMBOE)
December 31, 2016 233 259 384 2,517 3,604 8,911 284 8,766
Discoveries
Extensions 8 22 39 554 25 187
Infill Drilling 6 10 295 26 91
Improved Recovery 1 2 1 3
Acquisitions 8 26 99 50 2,496 145 1 2,704
Dispositions (1 )
Economic Factors 1 (29 ) (3 )
Technical Revisions 1 (11 ) 3 18 66 229 14 129
Production (18 ) (35 ) (19 ) (44 ) (103 ) (585 ) (15 ) (332 )
December 31, 2017 239 272 469 2,580 6,063 9,520 335 11,545
North Sea
December 31, 2016 253 85 267
Discoveries
Extensions
Infill Drilling 1 1
Improved Recovery
Acquisitions
Dispositions
Economic Factors
Technical Revisions (65 ) (39 ) (72 )
Production (9 ) (14 ) (11 )
December 31, 2017 180 32 185
Offshore Africa
December 31, 2016 133 80 146
Discoveries
Extensions
Infill Drilling
Improved Recovery
Acquisitions
Dispositions
Economic Factors
Technical Revisions (1 ) (5 ) (2 )
Production (7 ) (8 ) (8 )
December 31, 2017 125 67 136
Total Company
December 31, 2016 619 259 384 2,517 3,604 9,076 284 9,179
Discoveries
Extensions 8 22 39 554 25 187
Infill Drilling 7 10 295 26 92
Improved Recovery 1 2 1 3
Acquisitions 8 26 99 50 2,496 145 1 2,704
Dispositions (1 )
Economic Factors 1 (29 ) (3 )
Technical Revisions (65 ) (11 ) 3 18 66 185 14 55
Production (34 ) (35 ) (19 ) (44 ) (103 ) (607 ) (15 ) (351 )
December 31, 2017 544 272 469 2,580 6,063 9,619 335 11,866

Reserves Notes:

  1. Company Gross reserves are working interest share before deduction of royalties and excluding any royalty interests.
  2. Company Net reserves are working interest share after deduction of royalties and including any royalty interests.
  3. BOE values may not calculate due to rounding.
  4. Forecast pricing assumptions utilized by the Independent Qualified Reserves Evaluators in the reserve estimates were provided by Sproule
    Associates Limited:
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Average
annual increase
thereafter
Crude oil and NGL
WTI at Cushing (US$/bbl) $ 55.00 $ 65.00 $ 70.00 $ 73.00 $ 74.46 2.00%
Western Canada Select (C$/bbl) $ 51.05 $ 59.61 $ 64.94 $ 68.43 $ 69.80 2.00%
Canadian Light Sweet (C$/bbl) $ 65.44 $ 74.51 $ 78.24 $ 82.45 $ 84.10 2.00%
Cromer LSB (C$/bbl) $ 64.44 $ 73.51 $ 77.24 $ 81.45 $ 83.10 2.00%
Edmonton Pentanes+ (C$/bbl) $ 67.72 $ 75.61 $ 78.82 $ 82.35 $ 84.07 2.00%
North Sea Brent (US$/bbl) $ 58.00 $ 67.00 $ 72.00 $ 75.00 $ 76.50 2.00%
Natural gas
AECO (C$/MMBtu) $ 2.85 $ 3.11 $ 3.65 $ 3.80 $ 3.95 2.00%
BC Westcoast Station 2 (C$/MMBtu) $ 2.45 $ 2.71 $ 3.25 $ 3.40 $ 3.55 2.00%
Henry Hub (US$/MMBtu) $ 3.25 $ 3.50 $ 4.00 $ 4.08 $ 4.16 2.00%

Note: A foreign exchange rate of 0.7900 US$/C$ for 2018, 0.8200 US$/C$ for 2019, and 0.8500 US$/C$ after 2019 was used in the 2017 evaluation.

  1. A barrel of oil equivalent (“BOE”) is derived by converting six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of crude oil (6 Mcf:1 bbl). This conversion may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation, since the 6 Mcf:1 bbl ratio is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In comparing the value ratio using current crude oil prices relative to natural gas prices, the 6 Mcf:1 bbl conversion ratio may be misleading as an indication of value.
  2. Metrics included herein are commonly used in the oil and natural gas industry and are determined by Canadian Natural as set out in the notes below. These metrics do not have standardized meanings and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies and may be misleading when making comparisons. Management uses these metrics to evaluate Canadian Natural’s performance over time. However, such measures are not reliable indicators of Canadian Natural’s future performance and future performance may vary.
  3. Reserve additions and revisions are comprised of all categories of Company Gross reserve changes, exclusive of production.
  4. Reserve replacement or Production replacement ratio is the Company Gross reserve additions and revisions, for the relevant reserve category, divided by the Company Gross production in the same period.
  5. Reserve Life Index is based on the amount for the relevant reserve category divided by the 2018 proved developed producing production forecast prepared by the Independent Qualified Reserve Evaluators.
  6. Finding, Development and Acquisition ("FD&A") costs are calculated by dividing the sum of total exploration, development and acquisition capital costs incurred in 2017 by the sum of total additions and revisions for the relevant reserve category.
  7. FD&A costs including change in Future Development Capital ("FDC") are calculated by dividing the sum of total exploration, development and acquisition capital costs incurred in 2017 and net change in FDC from December 31, 2016 to December 31, 2017 by the sum of total additions and revisions for the relevant reserve category. FDC excludes all abandonment and reclamation costs.
  8. Recycle Ratio is the operating netback ($23.40/BOE for 2017) divided by the FD&A (in $/BOE). Operating netback is production revenues, excluding realized gains and losses on commodity hedging, less royalties, transportation and production expenses, calculated on a per BOE basis.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements relating to Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (the “Company”) in this document or documents incorporated herein by reference constitute forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “target”, “continue”, “could”, “intend”, “may”, “potential”, “predict”, “should”, “will”, “objective”, “project”, “forecast”, “goal”, “guidance”, “outlook”, “effort”, “seeks”, “schedule”, “proposed” or expressions of a similar nature suggesting future outcome or statements regarding an outlook. Disclosure related to expected future commodity pricing, forecast or anticipated production volumes, royalties, operating costs, capital expenditures, income tax expenses and other guidance provided throughout the Company's Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”), constitute forward-looking statements. Disclosure of plans relating to and expected results of existing and future developments, including but not limited to the Horizon Oil Sands operations and future expansions, the Athabasca Oil Sands Project ("AOSP"), Primrose thermal projects, the Pelican Lake water and polymer flood project, the Kirby Thermal Oil Sands Project, the cost of construction and future operations of the North West Redwater bitumen upgrader and refinery, and construction by third parties of new or expansion of existing pipeline capacity or other means of transportation of bitumen, crude oil, natural gas or synthetic crude oil (“SCO”) that the Company may be reliant upon to transport its products to market also constitute forward-looking statements. This forward-looking information is based on annual budgets and multi-year forecasts, and is reviewed and revised throughout the year as necessary in the context of targeted financial ratios, project returns, product pricing expectations and balance in project risk and time horizons. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks. The reader should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as there can be no assurances that the plans, initiatives or expectations upon which they are based will occur.

In addition, statements relating to “reserves” are deemed to be forward-looking statements as they involve the implied assessment based on certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves described can be profitably produced in the future. There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of proved and proved plus probable crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (“NGLs”) reserves and in projecting future rates of production and the timing of development expenditures. The total amount or timing of actual future production may vary significantly from reserve and production estimates.

The forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the Company and the industry in which the Company operates, which speak only as of the date such statements were made or as of the date of the report or document in which they are contained, and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, among others: general economic and business conditions which will, among other things, impact demand for and market prices of the Company’s products; volatility of and assumptions regarding crude oil and natural gas prices; fluctuations in currency and interest rates; assumptions on which the Company’s current guidance is based; economic conditions in the countries and regions in which the Company conducts business; political uncertainty, including actions of or against terrorists, insurgent groups or other conflict including conflict between states; industry capacity; ability of the Company to implement its business strategy, including exploration and development activities; impact of competition; the Company’s defense of lawsuits; availability and cost of seismic, drilling and other equipment; ability of the Company and its subsidiaries to complete capital programs; the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ ability to secure adequate transportation for its products; unexpected disruptions or delays in the resumption of the mining, extracting or upgrading of the Company’s bitumen products; potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; ability of the Company to attract the necessary labour required to build its thermal and oil sands mining projects; operating hazards and other difficulties inherent in the exploration for and production and sale of crude oil and natural gas and in mining, extracting or upgrading the Company’s bitumen products; availability and cost of financing; the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ success of exploration and development activities and its ability to replace and expand crude oil and natural gas reserves; timing and success of integrating the business and operations of acquired companies and assets, including the interests in AOSP as well as additional working interests in certain other producing and non-producing oil and gas properties (the "other assets"), acquired by the Company on May 31, 2017; production levels; imprecision of reserve estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of crude oil, natural gas and NGLs not currently classified as proved; actions by governmental authorities; government regulations and the expenditures required to comply with them (especially safety and environmental laws and regulations and the impact of climate change initiatives on capital and operating costs); asset retirement obligations; the adequacy of the Company’s provision for taxes; and other circumstances affecting revenues and expenses.

The Company’s operations have been, and in the future may be, affected by political developments and by national, federal, provincial and local laws and regulations such as restrictions on production, changes in taxes, royalties and other amounts payable to governments or governmental agencies, price or gathering rate controls and environmental protection regulations. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should any of the Company’s assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary in material respects from those projected in the forward-looking statements. The impact of any one factor on a particular forward-looking statement is not determinable with certainty as such factors are dependent upon other factors, and the Company’s course of action would depend upon its assessment of the future considering all information then available.

Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed in this report could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that the expectations conveyed by the forward-looking statements are reasonable based on information available to it on the date such forward-looking statements are made, no assurances can be given as to future results, levels of activity and achievements. All subsequent forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, attributable to the Company or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Except as required by law, the Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or other factors, or the foregoing factors affecting this information, should circumstances or Management’s estimates or opinions change.

Special Note Regarding Currency, Production and Non-GAPP Financial Measures

The Company's MD&A of the financial condition and results of operations of the Company should be read in conjunction with the unaudited interim Consolidated Financial Statements for the three months and year ended December 31, 2017 and the MD&A and the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2016.

All dollar amounts are referenced in millions of Canadian dollars, except where noted otherwise. The Company’s unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the period ended December 31, 2017 and the Company's MD&A have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board. The Company's MD&A includes references to financial measures commonly used in the crude oil and natural gas industry, such as adjusted net earnings (loss) from operations, funds flow from operations (previously referred to as cash flow from operations), and adjusted cash production costs. These financial measures are not defined by IFRS and therefore are referred to as non-GAAP measures. The non-GAAP measures used by the Company may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. The Company uses these non-GAAP measures to evaluate its performance. The non-GAAP measures should not be considered an alternative to or more meaningful than net earnings (loss) and cash flows from operating activities, as determined in accordance with IFRS, as an indication of the Company's performance. The non-GAAP measures adjusted net earnings (loss) from operations and funds flow from operations are reconciled to net earnings (loss), as determined in accordance with IFRS, in the “Financial Highlights” section of the Company's MD&A. The non-GAAP measure funds flow from operations is also reconciled to cash flows from operating activities in this section. The derivation of adjusted cash production costs and adjusted depreciation, depletion and amortization are included in the “Operating Highlights - Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading” section of the Company's MD&A. The Company also presents certain non-GAAP financial ratios and their derivation in the “Liquidity and Capital Resources” section of the Company's MD&A.

A Barrel of Oil Equivalent (“BOE”) is derived by converting six thousand cubic feet (“Mcf”) of natural gas to one barrel (“bbl”) of crude oil (6 Mcf:1 bbl). This conversion may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation, since the 6 Mcf:1 bbl ratio is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In comparing the value ratio using current crude oil prices relative to natural gas prices, the 6 Mcf:1 bbl conversion ratio may be misleading as an indication of value. In addition, for the purposes of the Company's MD&A, crude oil is defined to include the following commodities: light and medium crude oil, primary heavy crude oil, Pelican Lake heavy crude oil, bitumen (thermal oil), and SCO.

Production volumes and per unit statistics are presented throughout the Company's MD&A on a “before royalty” or “gross” basis, and realized prices are net of blending and feedstock costs and exclude the effect of risk management activities. Production on an “after royalty” or “net” basis is also presented for information purposes only.

Additional information relating to the Company, including its Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2016, is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com, and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov.

CONFERENCE CALL

A conference call will be held at 9:00 a.m. Mountain Time, 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, March 1, 2018.

The North American conference call number is 1-866-521-4909 and the outside North American conference call number is 001-647-427-2311. Please call in 10 minutes prior to the call starting time.

An archive of the broadcast will be available until 6:00 p.m. Mountain Time, Thursday, March 15, 2018. To access the rebroadcast in North America, dial 1-800-585-8367. Those outside of North America, dial 001-416-621-4642. The conference archive ID number is 9424719.

The conference call will also be Webcast live and may be accessed on the home page of our website at www.cnrl.com.

For further information, please contact:

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.
2100, 855 - 2nd Street S.W. Calgary, Alberta, T2P4J8 T: 403-517-7777 Email: ir@cnrl.com
www.cnrl.com

STEVE W. LAUT
Executive Vice-Chairman

TIM S. MCKAY
President

COREY B. BIEBER
Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice-President, Finance

MARK A. STAINTHORPE
Director, Treasury and Investor Relations

Trading Symbol - CNQ
Toronto Stock Exchange
New York Stock Exchange